Odds and Implied Odds!! - Lengthly view of them

Odds and Implied Odds!! - Lengthly view of them!!

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Josh1313 Nibs: 59,618 Member Since: Jan 3rd 2006

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Odds and Implied Odds - Another Explanation!!

Now this concept is often spoken about and is explained in many ways.  It is extremely important to understand the odds and implied odds when playing so that you can make more educated decisions and ones that are not just mathimatically correct but are also considered to be "smart money" plays.

I will attempt to give an explaination that will give players an understanding of the concept that they can use when sitting at the table.  Most players will make many of their calling decisions based on the size of the pot in comparison to the size of the bet.  This is what we refer to as calculation the "pot odds".

Now while many decisions can be correct based on the pot odds that you are getting in any particular situation and will make it right for you to make a call you also need to consider and adjust your decisions to consider the expected future action of your opponents. 

For example if you are in a hand and the and the original better is behind you and someone who acts before you has lead out and you are deciding whether to call or not you should reduce your pots odds considerably.  You should do this especially if you think that the original better is going to raise and it will cost you even more money to see the next card.  This means that you should consider folding a greater number of the time.

On the other hand if the oringal better acts in front of you and you have two loose calling stations behind you then you can increase your pot odds becuase of the likelyhood that they will also call the bet and put more money in the pot for you to have an opportunity to win.

Example number 1 demonstrated:

You hold A9 of diamonds:

Flop

In this case a player in front of you that has been playing solid leads out at the pot. In this case it was an unraised pot preflop and you have a number of players to act behind you.  You should just fold your hand right here and save yourself some money.  You could be behind, two pair, a stronger A and there are straight draw and flush draw possibilities on the board.  Even if you hit a 9 it might not give you the best hand.  This is a situation that you are not getting the right odds to make a call.

If you are up against a player that is weak and will bet out with any weak A or any Q or who always bets their draws then a raise might be correct in this situation but most of the time folding is the best decision in this case.  Other exceptions to where folding might not be correct is if the pot is very large and the bet small in comparison or if you are playing in a very loose game.

Second example:

You hold A9 diamonds again:

Flop

In this case you have the nut flush draw, gutshot straight draw and two over cards.  Now your 9 would not likely give you the best hand so you should remove that from your calculation, but hitting the A might also give you the best hand.  In this situation you should consider calling much more often not only because you have many more outs to make the best hand but also because you could hit a hand and at the same time your opponents could hit something smaller and you would make a much greater amount of money.  You have 9 diamonds, 3 aces and 4 sixes to make a better hand.  That is 16 outs  and on the flop that you would make you a favourite over most hands and give you the right odds to call just about any bet.

Another thing to consider when calculating your odds is looking at future streets and how the betting might play out.  If you hold a flush draw on the flop and if you miss your flush on the turn and are intending to call the turn bet that is likely to come as well then you need to reduce your pot odds.  In effect your odds of hitting your hand are not as good as they appear and the addition money your are going to be investing on the turn as it will lower the effective odds that you are receiving on the pot overall.

Certainly the opposite can also be true in the fact that you are actually getting better odds then you figure the pot is offering you. In this case if you plan to fold the turn if you miss your flush and will only continuing putting money in the pot if you hit then your odds actually increase because of the implied odds that you are getting.  That is if you hit your hand the extra money that you will win from your opponent on the turn and the river.  Implied odds increase with opponents that have deeper stacks or for opponents that are more willing to risk all there chips on a lesser hand.

Here is an example of this:

In a limped pot you hold 45 of clubs.

Flop is

You have a gutshot straight draw and there are 6 players in the pot. $50 NL table.  There is $3.25 in the pot before the flop.  You are on the button and player in early position as bet out $1 and 3 players in front of you have just called.  So the pot is not $7.25 and it costs you $1 to call.   So your pots odds to call are 7.25 to 1.  In this case you are not getting the correct pot odds to call to hit your straight.  It is about 11 to 1 to hit a gutshot straight and you are not getting those odds.  However, with no other real draws on the board and so many other players in the hand as well as being in good position your implied odds are much greater.  That $1 you call to see the turn can win you a huge pot if you were to hit the 6 on the turn.  That would give you the absolute nuts and strong possibility of breaking one of your opponents.  This would be a good situation to call to see the turn.

Other similar situations in which it is often correct to call when you are not getting the correct odds is when you have a small pair and it is likely that your opponent is holding a much larger pair.  It is about 8:1 to flop a set and you are very rarely getting those kinds of odds preflop but the fact of the matter is that if you do flop a set you are more then likely going to get your opponents entire stack which will more then make the investment worth it.

You hold 66 and your opponent KK and he raises to 2 preflop.  You call to see the flop.  You have $48.5 in chips before the hand begins and he has $63.85.  You are not calling the $2 with the intention of winning the $3.50 pot which is only odds of about 1.8 to 1(3.5 to 2) you are calling the $2 to win $48.5 which is the amount of you doubling up if you hit your set.  These are implied odd of nearly 24 to 1 (48.5 to 2).  This is the case because as a solid player you are not going to invest any more money in this pot unless you hit your 6.  This makes it very worth while to see the flop and try to hit your set.

These are just some examples.  It is always better off calculating the odds by giving yourself some room for error.  For example if you think that you have 14 outs to win the pot only use 12 or 13 of them to figure out your odds.  Or if you need to bet getting 3:1 on your money for the call to be correct and you calculate that you are getting 2.8:1 then you should lean more towards folding then calling.

Every once in awhile though you will need to make a loose call or even a bad call so that you dont become predictable and are always being pushed out of the pots.

Look at the hand the you have and make a decision about the range of hands that your opponent could be potentially holding and then determine what cards can come to win you the hand.  Those are your outs to win the pot.  If you have 9 outs to win the pot with 67 hearts for example and you opponent has an over pair on 2 9 J board with 2 hearts. Then you are about a 2:1 dog on the hand.  This means that you are going to make your flush 1 every 3 times. So if you are getting 3:1 odds on the call then you should see the turn.

This is just a different way of looking at it and hopefully helps you get a better understanding of odds.

Sorry it is so long!!

Comments (3)

Posted on Jul 26th 2008 by Shady9977 it's a super post :) very nice...5 stars from me

Posted on Jul 26th 2008 by Josh1313 Thanks Shady, sure took more time to put it together then I thought it would, lol!!

Posted on Jul 28th 2008 by PI_Viceroid good post, original poker content no shit